PredictionMarketsPicks Quant

How to connect

• calculate_ev

  Calculate the expected-value edge on a Kalshi or Polymarket prediction-market contract. Given the current market price (in cents, i.e. the implied probability) and your own probability estimate, returns the % edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP signal with a plain-English read. Use for "is this contract mispriced", "what is my edge", "should I take this position".

• kelly_size

  Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

• bayes_update

  Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".

• convert_probability

  Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

• base_rate_gap

  Compare a market price against the historical base rate for a class of events and get the gap in percentage points plus a signal and sample-size quality. Pass either a known base-rate id (one of: incumbent_reelected, fed_hold_unemp_below_4, fed_cut_cpi_above_3, recession_called_12mo, sp500_positive_year, bitcoin_above_100k_eoy, gdp_growth_above_2, cpi_above_3, senate_incumbent_wins_primary, vix_below_20_eoy, interest_rate_cut_next_meeting, major_sports_upset) or your own baseRateValue. Use for "

• combo_edge

  Grade a same-game combo (parlay-style multi-leg position) on a prediction market. Given each leg's price in cents and your correlation-aware estimate of the true joint win probability, returns the expected-value %, fair vs offered odds, a negative-correlation-trap flag, and a 7-tier verdict (SMASH / PLAY / LEAN / RISK / NO_VALUE / PASS / RUN). Use for "is this combo worth it", "grade my parlay", "same-game combo value".

• find_arbitrage

  Scan for cross-platform price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same sports contract (NBA, NHL, MLB, World Cup). Returns each game where the two venues disagree on the implied probability, the gap in percentage points, the WATCH/ARB signal, and which venue is cheaper. Pro key required. Use for "where is the arbitrage", "cross-platform price gaps", "Kalshi vs Polymarket mispricing".

• market_pulse

  Get the current US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime, plus the six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment). Reads the daily Macro Pulse composite. Pro key required. Use for "how is the US economy", "macro regime", "risk-on or risk-off".

• commodity_edge

  Get today's highest-conviction silver or bitcoin trade signal from the PMP edge model — the Kalshi weekly-silver (KXSILVERW) or twice-daily bitcoin (KXBTCD) strike with the largest model edge, as a trade ticket: entry side and price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge in percentage points, confidence tier, and quarter-Kelly sizing. Pro key required. Use for "silver edge today", "bitcoin trade signal", "is there a commodity edge".

• scan_mispricings

  Scan Polymarket contracts for mispricings against the PMP model (a probability swarm). Returns each market where the model disagrees with the price, the direction to take, the edge in percentage points, and quarter-Kelly sizing, sorted by absolute edge. Pro key required. Use for "where is the edge today", "mispriced markets", "what should I trade".

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